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75秒急速赛车彩票窍门

75秒急速赛车彩票窍门:In-depth interpretation of the formal opening of the CDR fund outlet or risk?

时间:2018/6/12 19:41:10  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要: Recently, the CDR is very hot and you can see related topics discussed everywhere. Castrol, E-Fang and other six strategic placement funds ...

Recently, the CDR is very hot and you can see related topics discussed everywhere. Castrol, E-Fang and other six strategic placement funds with CDRs were sold, and overseas listed companies such as BAT officially entered the return journey to A-shares. Prior to this, the Securities Regulatory Commission issued nine CDR regulations and regulatory documents, including the “Administrative Measures on Depositary Receipts and Transactions (Trial)”. The first reported six unicorn funds are also sold in the Fund of Heaven! Click here to buy immediately \u0026gt;

It is undeniable that overseas listed companies such as BAT have a significant return through the CDR curve. However, any investment is risky, not return BAT is "any harm", it may face the following series of pressures and challenges.

starting CDR called "unicorn" misnomer

according to Baidu Encyclopedia defined, generally refers to the valuation of the Unicorn company more than $ 1 billion, and the company established a relatively short time. More importantly, the reason why the unicorn is seen by the market is because it has the potential for rapid growth in business and profitability.

However, the provisions of the State Council issued the Interim Measures on the CDR, CDR pilot enterprises standard issue is "consistent with the national strategy to master the core technology, high market acceptance, belonging to the Internet, big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, software and integrated circuits, High-tech industries and strategic emerging industries such as high-end equipment manufacturing and bio-pharmaceuticals, and they have reached a considerable number of innovative enterprises, among which, large-scale red-chip companies that have been listed overseas have a market value of no less than 200 billion yuan, and have not yet been listed overseas. innovative enterprises (including red-chip enterprises and domestic enterprises registered), the most recent year operating income of not less than 3 billion yuan and the valuation of not less than 20 billion yuan. "

From the Internet companies currently listed on US stocks or Hong Kong stocks, only Alibaba , Baidu, and other leading companies that meet the conditions are eligible. These companies have already experienced a period of high growth of more than ten years and are at the end of the Internet demographic dividend. They are truly "big tyrannos" instead of "unicorns." Therefore, I believe that "unicorn strategic distribution fund" should be renamed "giant strategic distribution fund."

Technology stocks and unicorns are overvalued Universally

Companies that issue CDRs, except for the ones that are listed, are mostly based on US stocks or Hong Kong stocks, such as BAT, for the foreseeable future. At the same time, unicorn enterprises such as Didi and US group that will be listed in many places in the future will imitate Xiaomi's issuance of US stocks + CDRs or Hong Kong stocks + CDRs in the same period.

Although CDR and US stocks or Hong Kong stocks are separate markets, in the process of CDR issuance, the price of US stocks or Hong Kong stocks will still be an important price benchmark. At present, the US stocks' valuation is at the second highest level in history. On June 6th, the Shiller PE P/E ratio (32.95 times) was second only to the peak period of the Internet bubble in 2000 (see chart below).

75秒急速赛车彩票窍门:In-depth_interpretation_of_the_formal_opening_of_the_CDR_fund_outlet_or_risk?

On the same day, Alibaba's P/E ratio is 51.8 times. Even for just listed companies unicorn, below the issue price of the phenomenon is not uncommon, as the good doctor peace as the New Deal's first IPO listed on HKEx's "unicorn", listed the next day cracked hair, other Hong Kong-listed mainland "unicorn" enterprises, such as reading Man Group , Zhong An online , Yi Xin Group , etc., without exception, after the listing of shares finished lower, iQIYI hit the US the first day of break after Nasdaq .

CDR or return to A-share result since

vampire effect this year, the domestic stock market bid farewell to the 2017 bull market has entered a period of intense turmoil, CDR will inevitably result in large-scale financing vampire effect on the domestic stock market, increasing downward pressure on the stock.

From the data point of view, in 2017, the domestic A-share IPO financing scale was 218.6 billion yuan (see the chart below). This was achieved in the bull market of 201 CSI 300 index rose by 21.7%.

75秒急速赛车彩票窍门:In-depth_interpretation_of_the_formal_opening_of_the_CDR_fund_outlet_or_risk?

At present, the market value of the five overseas red chip companies that meet the standards is as high as 7.8 trillion yuan, plus the estimated value of the 30 unicorn enterprises issued by the Torch Center of the Ministry of Science and Technology is about 2.7 trillion yuan, and the combined market value is more than 10 trillion yuan. . According to international practice, CDRs or IPOs are issued at a market value of 4%-8%, and the financing scale is between 400 billion and 800 billion yuan. China National Gold Corporation The estimated annual financing scale is between 100 billion and 300 billion yuan.

This will not only have a greater impact on the liquidity in the secondary market, but will also significantly squeeze the financing size of companies that have already queued up for listing. In short, whether the domestic stock market and liquidity environment can withstand large-scale CDR regression still face greater risks and challenges. Control and regulatory authorities need to grasp the issue of proportion and rhythm, reducing the short-term impact on the A-share liquidity as possible.

fund investors do not ignore the liquidity risk of loss

country (2018) defined "securities issuance and underwriting management approach", the number of initial public offerings in more than 400 million shares, or depository receipts issued in the territory, it is possible to strategic investors placing equity and strategic investors committed to stock or CDR holding period of less than 12 months. Therefore, the lock-in period for strategic placement investors is generally 12 months, 18 months, 36 months, and 48 months. This is also the reason why the lock-up periods of six funds, Huaxia, E-Fang, South, China Merchants, Huitianfu, and Castrol, have all been set at 36 months.

The lock-up period of 36 months means that the fund's share can only be transferred or held for a long time in the secondary market. Its liquidity loss and investment risk within 36 months are the funds investors must bear and face.

Of course, the above analysis and risk tips cannot deny the positive significance of large-scale Internet companies and technology CDRs. The CDR tool is undoubtedly a major innovation in the current environment in which China’s renminbi capital projects are still regulated. It is not only beneficial to the domestic capital market in line with international standards, but also promotes the internationalization of the domestic capital market while allowing domestic investors to share technological innovations. Dividends for the rapid development of Internet companies. However, any investment is risky. Whether it is investment or supervision, it is necessary to have a clear understanding of the risks and to prepare a risk plan in order to deal with possible risks.

75秒急速赛车彩票窍门:In-depth_interpretation_of_the_formal_opening_of_the_CDR_fund_outlet_or_risk?

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